The North Dallas corridor spent the past year shifting from what agents describe as an even playing field to a clear buyer’s market, with inventory at levels not seen in over 15 years and offers coming in well below asking price. But a wave of corporate relocations scheduled for late 2026 and into 2027 could tighten conditions again before sellers fully adjust to the new reality.
That tension between present-day softness and near-term demand is shaping how deals get done in Frisco, Plano, and the communities stretching north toward Celina.
Buyers Test Limits
The shift from balanced to buyer-favored happened fast. A year ago, neither side held a clear advantage. Now, sellers are fielding offers $200,000 below list price, sometimes paired with requests for maximum closing cost assistance.
“It’s definitely been a challenging market this year,” says Rachael Hill, a Luxury Home & Relocation Specialist with Coldwell Banker Apex, Realtors in Frisco. “There’s a lot of buyers that are sitting on the fence waiting for this rate to drop, and I don’t think we’re going to see 3% again.”
The rate lock-in effect compounds the problem. Many existing homeowners hold mortgages in the high-2% to 3% range, and the math on upsizing or downsizing doesn’t work at current rates. That keeps would-be sellers in place, which paradoxically doesn’t reduce inventory, it just means the listings that do hit the market face a smaller buyer pool.
For buyers weighing whether to act now or wait, the concession environment offers a partial offset: sellers are responding with more repair allowances, price reductions, and closing cost contributions than Hill says she’s seen in recent cycles. Buyers willing to negotiate aggressively are extracting value that wasn’t available a year ago.
First-Time Buyers Are Heading North
Frisco’s prices have effectively pushed first-time buyers out of the city. They’re landing instead in Aubrey and Celina, where new construction offers more space at lower entry costs.
Celina in particular is absorbing much of this demand. Hill describes it as the fastest-growing city for new construction in the area, and for investors considering where to deploy capital, it’s where the numbers currently make more sense.
“I don’t know that I would point an investor to Frisco right now,” Hill says. “It’s a pretty saturated market. I would probably focus on the northern corridor more.”
New construction in growth corridors is easier to manage than resale in a mature market with high inventory and aggressive buyer negotiation. For first-time buyers, the tradeoff is a longer commute in exchange for more house and land than Frisco can offer at comparable prices.
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